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Why Storylines can Provide Evidence for Climate Change in Extreme Events: The Risks of False Negatives
Elisabeth Lloyd, Indiana University
Within climate science, the field of Detection and Attribution concerns the detection of anthropogenic effects on climate; the attribution part concerns how much or how severe these effects are, that is, how many degrees of temperature, how much extra precipitation or hurricane force, is due to the increase in anthropogenic causes. In other words, to what extent is a given extreme event attributable to the increase in greenhouse gases? Lloyd will consider two basic methods for attributing climate change to extreme weather events, the probabilistic approach and the storyline method that was recently introduced, the latter being somewhat controversial. She will defend the use of the storyline approach to attribution and discuss how it has been applied in a real-life context, showing that opposition to the approach is ill-founded.
This talk is a part of the series Science and Values in Climate Risk Management. Webinars in this series are followed the next day by a small-group discussion with the speaker. These follow-up events are opportunities to network and converse with researchers making virtual visits to Penn State. Registration for these small-group discussions is first come, first served, and is capped at 15 attendees. Students are very welcome!