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"Hydrologic Systems Modeling and Analysis Using Weather and Climate Ensembles"

Thursday, April 11, 2019 - 3:45pm to 4:45pm
117 EES Building
"Hydrologic Systems Modeling and Analysis Using Weather and Climate Ensembles"
Sanjib Sharma
Civil and Environmental Engineering
Penn State University

Thursday, April 11
3:45 - 4:45 PM
117 EES Building

Refreshments will be provided.
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Abstract: In this seminar, I will focus on three different case studies to demonstrate that: i) hydrologic multimodel forecasts perform better than single model forecasts at short-to-medium range timescales (1 to 7 days), and that the observed skill improvement is dominated by the addition of new predictable signals rather than by the reduction of noise associated with ensemble averaging; ii) skillful streamflow and water quality (nutrients and suspended sediments) forecasts can be generated at the subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales (2 weeks to 3 months), which has implications for forecasting harmful algal blooms; and iii) inundation mapping is an important, but rarely quantified, source of uncertainty in long-range flood inundation projections. This last case study will be demonstrated using flood inundation projections for all rivers in Pennsylvania. The three case studies all share a common methodology consisting of combining dynamical and statistical modeling within a hydrological systems approach. This approach is useful to address interdisciplinary research questions and problems at the intersection of hydrology, other Earth sciences, and decision making.


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