"Sustainability has become a very defining leadership competency for our students going forward. We've made a commitment that every single one of our students, every single one will go out with sustainability embedded into their DNA."
Abstract: In this seminar, I will focus on three different case studies to demonstrate that: i) hydrologic multimodel forecasts perform better than single model forecasts at short-to-medium range timescales (1 to 7 days), and that the observed skill improvement is dominated by the addition of new predictable signals rather than by the reduction of noise associated with ensemble averaging; ii) skillful streamflow and water quality (nutrients and suspended sediments) forecasts can be generated at the subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales (2 weeks to 3 months), which has implications for forecasting harmful algal blooms; and iii) inundation mapping is an important, but rarely quantified, source of uncertainty in long-range flood inundation projections. This last case study will be demonstrated using flood inundation projections for all rivers in Pennsylvania. The three case studies all share a common methodology consisting of combining dynamical and statistical modeling within a hydrological systems approach. This approach is useful to address interdisciplinary research questions and problems at the intersection of hydrology, other Earth sciences, and decision making.